Gas Prices Decline And So Does The Market

Here are the latest trends and insights on the used car market according to Black Book data and Ricky Beggs. The market continues the more traditional seasonal movements and for the first three weeks of July the average change amount has increased within the cars and trucks. This past week the cars average segment change was -$68 as compared to the previous two weeks of -$56 and -$45. This past week at the -$68 change was the largest declining movement since the week ending January 24, 2014 at -$72. For comparison purposes, the year ago change level was only -$41. After such a strong Spring market, the remainder of the year may possibly see slightly larger declines as compared with typical seasonal patterns.

 

The smallest dollar level declining segment this past week within the cars was the Compact Cars at -$33. This has also been the most consistent moving segment during July with -$31 and -$20 the prior two weeks.

 

The truck segments are trending in the same direction but at slightly lower amounts of decline. This past week the average change was -$54 following smaller declines of -$39 and -$20 the prior two weeks. The last time the decline for the trucks was greater than this past week was the week ending February 21 when the level of change was -$67. 

 

Several truck related segments have been fairly consistent in their weekly movement during July with the Full-size Passenger Wagons changing by -$10, -$2 and -$2, the Full-size Pickups at -$20, +$6 and -$19 for the past three weeks. Also during July the Minivans have declined a little more, but at consistent weekly changes of -$32 this past week and -$36 and -$22 the prior two weeks.

 

There were over 1900 vehicles adjusted on average each day throughout the past week, perhaps from some buildup from the holiday a couple of weeks ago. This level was the most per day since the week of May 16 when we made just over 2000 per day. During that week 44% of the changes were increases where this past week only 22% were increasing adjustments.

 

With all of the changes and the number up and down the overall dollar change week over week is a decline of -$103. This is the largest weekly declining amount since the -$108 for the week ending January 24th during some of the almost forgotten brutal winter weather. One year ago the average weekly change was even greater at -$127 when only 14% of the changes were increasing value adjustments. So even with the level of changes today we still have a pretty solid and active market within the wholesale channels.

 

Within all of these changes there were also eleven 2014 models that received their first market driven wholesale values being made up of a variety of vehicles that came from nine different segments. So now is a great time to check some of the vehicles that fit your market segment for these fresh values.

 

There is other movement that is always of interest and that relates to the price of gas and diesel fuel. After all the hype in July about increasing gas prices at $3.64 per gallon we are almost a half a cent less than the year ago period after the 4.3 cent drop this past week. Diesel even dropped 1.9 cents and at $3.89 at the pump on a national average that is only 2.7 cents over year ago levels.

 

This past week I had the opportunity to get out on the auction lanes at the two day special auction event and the 19th Annual DAA Northwest Rock N Roll event. With two days of tremendous auction activity surrounding an industry famous rock concert, the whole team at DAA Northwest throws one of the best events in the industry for their dealers and consigners.

 

As part of this special event, class number three of the Auction Academy, administered by TPC Management, held their second session. The auction professionals in this program are growing leaders of the auction industry. We had the opportunity to present the current market conditions to the group and also listen to some of the other presenters to this team. With insight into the market from the leadership of DAA Northwest on how to put on a special event for the auction customers, the Auction Edge team, Harley Davidson Financial Remarketing and even Bobit Business Media, these students of the Academy are getting valuable insight into all phases of the auction industry. Training  is so important to all of us in our work and there are so many groups, associations and alliances that offer these type of learning opportunities. Our Editorial team at Black Book last year completed the IARA CAR program and I know some of the fleet industry offers training through AFLA and NAFA. Reach out to us and we will be glad to provide some of the contact info for these groups.

 

Lastly, be sure to check out the latest in-depth vehicle depreciation report, a joint venture between Black Book and Fitch Ratings. It is available at our website, BlackBookAuto.com.

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