More credit unions (67%) expect their auto portfolios to grow in the next six months vs 2025, as tariff and interest rate worries decline, according to new CULA survey; but 47% apprehensive about the next six months; with rising vehicle prices anticipated; Iran conflict shows little impact on overall outlook

San Diego, CA – June 3, 2026 – A new snapshot survey on the state of the automotive finance landscape from Credit Union Leasing of America (CULA) reveals increased credit union optimism about their auto finance portfolio growth, compared to last year, while also exposing concerns about rising vehicle prices, financial uncertainty, delinquencies and inflation. Concern about tariffs and interest rates, which were dominant a year ago[1], have diminished significantly, even as the Iran conflict is having little impact on their outlook for the auto finance landscape – thus far.

Demonstrating significant confidence in the coming twelve months, ninety-one percent of credit unions surveyed expect their auto portfolios to grow (67%) or remain the same (24%), leaving only 9% anticipating a decline. So, it is no surprise that the majority feel optimistic about the next 6 months, although that is tempered by the 47% who reported that, while not ‘pessimistic’, they are ‘apprehensive’.

While declining interest rates were the biggest contributor to credit union optimism, continuing inflation, financial uncertainty and rising delinquencies are driving concern about the future.

When asked how they expected the market to play out across the next 12 months, “vehicle prices continuing to increase” topped the list at 77%, with 46% anticipating that “interest rates will decrease” and 44% expecting “credit standards to tighten.” Credit unions were also asked if they expected further impact on vehicle purchasing decisions from tariffs in 2026, and the majority said no.

“Our survey from summer 2025 showed that credit unions expected vehicle prices to increase, and they were certainly right about that,” said Ken Sopp, President of CULA. “As concerns about tariffs have given way in 2026 to worries about delinquencies, inflation, and affordability, credit unions, nevertheless, expect their auto finance portfolios to grow, along with the number of their members opting for leasing. This makes sense given that the average vehicle lease payment is $151 less than the average loan payment.[2]”

According to the latest Experian Automotive report[3], 24% of new vehicles purchased in Q1 2026 were leased and, if CULA’s credit union survey is any indication, it is a trend that should continue. With affordability top of mind, 72% of credit union respondents said they expected more of their members to choose a vehicle lease over a loan in the next six months. Leasing’s combination of affordability and flexibility were cited by 98% as the reasons why their members opt to lease.

As the survey was fielded before the Iran conflict had escalated, CULA followed up in May with a sampling of survey takers. Of those, 38% expressed worry about the impact of the continuing Iran situation, while 62% said they remain optimistic, or that it had not yet impacted their outlook.

“Credit unions are used to weathering the ups and downs of the macroeconomic landscape and never has that been truer than today,” said Chris Harper, Director of Business Development for CULA. “It remains to be seen what the overall impact of the Iran situation will be; but rising gas prices and supply chain issues have the potential to take a further toll on vehicle prices, a major concern of our survey takers. Nevertheless, as this survey shows, staying the course and focusing on financial products, such as leasing, that will help their members navigate our uncertain financial environment continues to be job one for credit unions.”

Key Takeaways

• 91% of credit union professionals surveyed expect their auto portfolios to grow (67%) or remain the same (24%); only 9% anticipate a decline
• 52% are optimistic about the auto finance landscape through the next 6 months
• Declining interest rates (57%) and a portfolio of finance products that offer members options to help with affordability (50%) were the biggest contributors to credit union optimism
• Of the 47% who are apprehensive, continuing inflation, financial uncertainty and rising delinquencies are top concerns
• 77% said “vehicle prices will continue to increase,” 46% anticipate that “interest rates will decrease,” and 44% expect “credit standards to tighten” in the next twelve months
• 53% do not expect the uncertainty around tariffs to continue to impact consumer vehicle purchasing decisions through 2026
• 72% expect more of their members to choose a vehicle lease over a loan in the next six months
• 98% cited leasing’s combination of affordability and flexibility as the reasons why their members opt to lease

The CULA “State of the Auto Finance Landscape” snapshot survey was fielded online among credit union professionals in Q2 2026. A follow up question to a sampling of survey-takers on the impact of the Iran situation was fielded in mid-May 2026.

About Credit Union Leasing of America

Credit Union Leasing of America (CULA) has been the leader in indirect vehicle leasing for credit unions for over 35 years. Founded in 1988, CULA provides best-in-class program assistance, analytics reporting, compliance support, dealer management tools and member services. The CULA indirect vehicle leasing program empowers credit union innovators to diversify their existing loan portfolios, improve yield and expand member services. Visit https://www.cula.com/ to learn more.

Media contacts:

Angela Jacobson, mWEBB Communications, angela(at)mwebbcom(dot)com, (714) 454-8776

Melanie Webber, mWEBB Communications, melanie(at)mwebbcom(dot)com, (949) 307-1723

[1] Tariffs were the number one reason cited for pessimism, with delinquencies, continuing inflation, and high interest rates scoring nearly as highly, according to CULA’s 2025 "Future of Auto Finance" snapshot survey (https://www.prweb.com/releases/credit-unions-expect-tariffs-to-damp...)

[2] Experian State of the Automotive Finance Report, Q1 2026

[3] Experian State of the Automotive Finance Report, Q1 2026